Hackney Conservatives win New River byelection
Councillor Benzion Papier, who won the New River byelection on 16 September 2009 for the Conservatives
Conservative Benzion Papier was the victor in yesterday’s local council by-election in New River ward, trouncing the other candidates with a 57 per cent majority. The closest runner-up was the Labour candidate Jonathan Burke with 37 per cent of the vote, followed by Green Stuart Coggins, Liberal Democrat Ben Mathis and independent Darren Fraser, all of whom polled less than three per cent of the total.
“I’m really privileged and grateful to have been elected as successor to the late Councillor Maureen Middleton. I’ve enjoyed meeting so many New River residents over the last few weeks and I’m looking forward to starting my surgeries and meeting even more of them,” said Cllr Papier.
The byelection had been called following the death of popular Conservative councillor Maureen Middleton. It was clear from the May 2010 local election results that the contest would be a straight fight between the Conservatives and Labour. In the event, the Conservative Papier gained considerable ground on his Labour rival, increasing his party’s share of the vote from 38 to 57 per cent, while the Labour vote total dropped from 42 to 37 per cent.
In the May poll, Hackney Labour party had increased their share of seats on the local council from 77 to 88 per cent, following an unexpectedly strong showing for Labour throughout London. This byelection result suggests that the May poll was somewhat of an anomaly, generated in large part by the timing of the local elections to coincide with a general election, and that the Conservatives have regained the ascendancy they had previously enjoyed in the northern reaches of the borough.
Mr Papier is a 26 year-old student living in Lynmouth Road with his wife and two year-old daughter. He hails originally from New York, and has lived in Stamford Hill for five years.
| Candidate | Party | Total vote September 2010 | Vote share September 2010 | Party vote share May 2010* |
| Benzion Papier | Conservatives | 1,567 | 57.2% | 37.6 % |
| Jonathan Burke | Labour | 1,007 | 36.8% | 41.9% |
| Stuart Coggins | Green Party | 77 | 2.8% | 14.8% |
| Benjamin Mathis | Liberal Democrats | 61 | 2.2% | 17.5% |
| Darren Fraser | independent | 26 | .9% |
* Party vote shares for the May 2010 election are calculated on the basis of the top-placing candidate for each party, as is conventional.
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I’d like to congratulate Mr Papier on his victory and wish him the best of luck in serving the people of New River and, in particular, residents of the Woodberry Down Estate, to whom I have developed a special and lasting bond.
I’d also like to extend my best wishes to the Libdem candidate Ben Mathis and Stuart Coggins of the Green Party, both of whom fought a sporting contest in difficult circumstances.
Although I am deeply disappointed not to have been elected on Thursday, I am extremely satisfied with every aspect of my campaign and heavily indebted to my long suffering girlfriend, Agent (Luke Akehurst), and all those friends (of whom there are many) in the Hackney Labour Party who helped out at one time or another.
I’ve got to say, however, that I’m slightly irked by the mean-spirited and (uncharacteristically) sloppy analysis on display in this article.
Not only did I help increase the Labour vote relative to the 2004 by-election and 2006 local election by as much as 30% but I also secured an average of 65% of all votes cast at 3 of the 4 polling stations. Hardly a ‘trouncing’ by any means.
In fact, had Mr Papier polled the same number of votes as the winning Tory candidate did in the 2004 by-election (958), I would have been the victor on Thursday.
The Tory vote in New River is very solid and, as a result, on a sub-40% turnout, Conservative candidates are very hard to beat. On a rare, much higher turnout, such as when a local election falls on the same day as a national election, Labour has a much better chance of capturing seats in the ward (as demonstrated in May).
If any conclusions can be drawn from Thursday night’s result in New River (where the electoral dynamics are almost unique) it’s that those areas of the ward where the Labour Party has lost votes in recent years appear to be returning to the fold (as evidenced by my having polled 1000+ votes) while, at the same time, the Tory vote has hardened further still.
I hope this has provided a more accurate picture of the by-election’s outcome than the one provided above. Alternatively, you may wish to read Luke Akehurst’s very balanced blog on the result: http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2010/09/council-by-election-results_17.html.
Finally, I’d just like to say thank you to everybody who placed their faith in me at the ballot box and reiterate how sorry I am that I can’t be there for people of New River as councillor. I do, however, intend to remain active in the ward in whatever way I can, so you’ll certainly be seeing more of me.
This is a helpful tale of the tally:
2006 Election
Turnout 39%
45% Conservative
30% Labour
10% Green
10% Lib Dem
Averages for three ballots so that some electors vote for different parties or less than three candidates. (5%)
2010 By-election
Turnout 38%
57.2% Conservative
36.8% Labour
2.8% Green
2.2% Lib Dem
An Independent candidate polled 27 votes. (1%)
Most importantly, the returning Officer was again unable to facilitate 62% of our community’s democratic right and this standard has to become unacceptable at some point. I know that leading a horse to water doesn’t necessitate drinking but no improvement is just going backwards. Participation remains the only protection from dictatorship and from now on really does need to be much more effectively facilitated.
Interesting to see that the Tory-Labour vote ratio has not changed since 2006. According to Jed Keenan’s figures, it is almost exactly 1.5 in both contests. This suggests that there has been virtually no alteration in the relative support of the two parties since that time, contrary to the suggestion of the defeated Labour candidate.
Sarah, personally, I thought my original response was entirely fair minded. I think you’ll find that what I said was:
“If any conclusions can be drawn from Thursday night’s result in New River (where the electoral dynamics are almost unique) it’s that those areas of the ward where the Labour Party has lost votes in recent years appear to be returning to the fold (as evidenced by my having polled 1000+ votes) while, at the same time, the Tory vote has hardened further still”.
The ratio has remained the same because both Labour and the Tories have been able to grow their vote in proportion to one another – Labour taking votes from Libdems and Greens and Tories taking some votes from Labour but mostly through registration drives within their block vote (300 sign-ups since May). I’d suggest that 1600 votes is about the ceiling of Tory support in the ward. 1007 votes actually gives Labour a good base from which to grow our vote.
Of the people that I was able to get to (politically) there was resounding support for the Labour Party. It would, of course, have been nice to make inroads in to the Tories’ block vote but, as anyone who lives in New River ward knows, that is extremely challenging. That shouldn’t stop us from trying, though.
The one irrefutable thing I can say, however, is that I wish the absolute best for everybody in New River and will continue to ‘bang the drum’ for the people of this area.
The electorate have now spoken. There’s really nothing more to add.
Best
Jon